| Daily Financial Market Outlook September 17, 2009 at 6:06 pm |
| Today rounds off what has been a busy, but mixed, week for global economic data. While yesterday's stronger-than-expected US Philadelphia Fed and housing starts reports provide further confirmation that the recovery there remains on track, the same cannot be said of the recent economic news in the UK. After Wednesday's... |
| USD Rebounds After Fresh Lows September 17, 2009 at 4:29 pm |
| U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) finally hit a bottom as the stock market rally stalled in the US and profit taking set in for the rest of the day. USD/JPY rallied and the Euro fell back from Fresh year highs. Weekly Jobless Claims improved to 545k vs. 557k previously. August Housing... |
| Majors Pairs Run On Sentiment September 17, 2009 at 4:21 pm |
| Overall, there were no major reports released during the session forcing the major pairs to run off sentiment. Tomorrow is also fairly light on economic releases and volume is expected to drift off by the early U.S. session. |
| Which Central Bank Will Pull The Trigger First? September 17, 2009 at 4:19 pm |
| As global equities rally to new highs for 2009, the USD falls to new lows for the year and the price of gold rises to near record high, there will be increased focus on which central bank will be the first to exit extraordinary monetary policy accommodation. Central bank implementation... |
| Forex Exchange Morning Report September 17, 2009 at 3:33 pm |
| Equity markets paused for breath after a solid two week rally. The Philly Fed's factory survey was strong overall (but less impressive in detail), supporting the S&P500 higher at the open to 1075 (the new 2009 peak), but things looked tired from then on, the index closing down 0.3%. Oil... |
| Dollar At Critical Support September 17, 2009 at 3:25 pm |
| The dollar traded mixed on Thursday, having tested important technical levels in the crosses. The dollar index tested its 76.00 support before closing little changed at 76.24. US economic figures were mixed. Housing data was slightly weaker than expected while numbers on initial jobless claims and Philadelphia manufacturing were better... |
| Greenback Weakness Continues, Pound Slides As Well September 17, 2009 at 3:20 pm |
| The Euro-Dollar pair hit a new high for the week and pushed within one-cent of the highest in a year, reaching the 1.4765 area overnight. The Euro slipped then slipped prior to the NY open, rebounded on the better US data, but then fell again as US stocks fell into... |
| New York Session Recap September 17, 2009 at 3:13 pm |
| The risk trade finally snapped its winning streak in NY trading driven by poor economic data and upcoming 'quadruple witching' tomorrow. Housing data in the US were mixed with housing starts printing as expected while the more forward looking permits numbers came in weaker. Initial jobless claims improved on the... |
| Majors Range-Bound During U.S. Session September 17, 2009 at 3:10 pm |
| Overall, Thursday was a very slow day in the forex market, with the major pairs moving in range bound fashion almost all day long. Except for the pound, the rest of the market had a trading range of less than 100 pips, probably one of the smallest of the last... |
| USD at New Lows, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Soars September 17, 2009 at 7:35 am |
| USD traded at a new 2009 low versus the EUR and rebounded versus the JPY Thursday with the EUR supported by report of a sharp rise in EU exports and JPY pressured by selling in cross trade. The rise in EU exports suggests that the global economy continues to recover... |
| U.S. Market Update September 17, 2009 at 6:07 am |
| In currencies, the price action in the dollar during the New York session tracked overall equity price moves, although it was contained within its Asian and European ranges. Dealers expressed concern over the Philly Fed data, which echoes some overseas numbers that have raised concerns about private demand once the... |
| Chorus of Dollar Bears Meets Crescendo September 17, 2009 at 5:08 am |
| No analyst wants to be left behind, which partially explains the shortage of dollar bulls at present. An acceleration of global stock index values explains the global recovery theme and why it's a current noose around the neck of the dollar. And as the world's stock markets stretch like a... |
| Manufacturing Activity in the Third District Increased September 17, 2009 at 4:51 am |
| The Philadelphia Fed General Activity Index surged 9.9 points to 14.1, the second consecutive month the index has indicated expansion. Positive numbers for new orders and shipments support the headline number. New orders dipped slightly from 4.2 to 3.3. The number remains positive, however, which indicates growth in orders. The... |
| JPY Weakens Further on Bond Rout. USD Grinds Lower, but Ticks Up after Mildly Supportive Data September 17, 2009 at 4:41 am |
| The market showing its usual back and forth, with the USD pattern of late being 3 steps forward, 2 steps back. It's beginning to feel a bit too easy after several days of this kind of action. Today or tomorrow, the market may decide to upset the apple cart with... |
| Housing and Manufacturing Sectors Continue to Signal Recovery is Undergoing in the United States September 17, 2009 at 4:37 am |
| The U.S. housing sector continues to show more signs that the worst slump for the housing sector in more than seven decades is over, as activity in the housing sector has been rising over the past few months on cheap home values and governmental aid to new car buyers, while... |
| Afternoon Forex Overview September 17, 2009 at 3:57 am |
| The dollar held gains versus major rivals Thursday after weekly initial U.S. jobless claims posted a smaller-than-expected rise. The Labor Department said 545,0000 Americans filed initial claims for jobless benefits in the latest week, down 12,000. A separate report said housing starts increased to a 598,000 annualized pace in August. |
| Recession Over? US Dollar Over? September 17, 2009 at 3:53 am |
| For the buck, this means that momentum may not let up ... that the drive lower will continue. The current environment is flush with US dollar-based credit that's funding risky investment. And while a short breather may be in order for the near-term, sentiment is in a place where a... |
| U.S. Housing Starts Resume Upward Trend September 17, 2009 at 3:45 am |
| Housing starts rose a modest 1.5% in August to an annualized 598,000, which was in line with market expectations going into the report. The level of activity in July was revised up to 589,000 from a previously estimated 581,000, although this still indicated a decline in starts last month albeit... |
| Canada's Core Inflation Rate Dips to Lowest Since July 2008 September 17, 2009 at 3:43 am |
| Canada's headline CPI was flat in August and the rate stayed in deflationary territory, rounding out three months of negative prints, although the pace of decline moderated to 0.8% following July's 0.9% drop. The downward pressure from the volatile energy price component subsided a bit as prices were 19.2% lower... |
| Eurozone: The Third Quarter News Diffused Some Hopes Despite the Weaknesses September 17, 2009 at 3:41 am |
| We walk in the parade of armies of the European nations, who are already stood and currently fighting the recession and the Credit Crisis that swept in the sixteen nations since the second quarter of 2008, whereas the economy is finally shaking off the dusts from the first recession since... |
| UK: Retail Sales Plummet Ensuring the Fact of Weakened Spending September 17, 2009 at 2:48 am |
| Episode Two, the United Kingdom for the second consecutive day continue to see further confirmations that the surging Unemployment rates resulting from the worst recession since World War II, had acted to curb consumers spending as they live with the deteriorating household incomes. Stalled sectors in the Royal territories would... |
| USD Mixed, Fed Divided Over When to Hike Rates September 17, 2009 at 2:26 am |
| USD is trading mixed and the JPY lower in reaction to a think tank report which says that the FOMC is divided about the timing of when to hike interest rates and that some board members favor an early exit from quantitative ease, BOJ leaves monetary policy unchanged as expected... |
| Majors Close To A Standstill Overnight September 17, 2009 at 1:35 am |
| Overall, the dollar continued to decline in Thursday morning trade, but so far, none one of the major currencies posted convincing gains. As in the last few overnight sessions, the market moved on a very thin momentum and volume, which caused the major pairs to turn at the first support... |
| Japan: BoJ Sees Signs of Recovery September 17, 2009 at 1:03 am |
| Bank of Japan (BoJ) as expected left its leading O/N target rate unchanged at 0.1% in a unanimous decision at today's monetary meeting. In its monetary policy statement, BoJ raised its assessment of the economy to "economic conditions are showing signs of recovery" from its earlier view that "the economy... |
| No Break From USD Selling - EUR And Gold Surge September 17, 2009 at 12:53 am |
| The USD sank to new lows on broad based selling, as participants ponder whether the Fed is really concerned about potential inflationary pressure of QE and actually moving toward an exit strategy. In addition, risk appetite remains high and risk correlated trades are gaining across the board, many making yearly... |
| London Session Recap September 17, 2009 at 12:07 am |
| USD/JPY has been bias lower this morning but has failed to push below the USD/JPY 90.50 level. The BoJ confirmed that it sees a moderate path of recovery, but left rates unchanged at expected. A decline in New Zealand's business PMI to 48.7 in August may encourage the view that... |
| European Market Update September 17, 2009 at 12:05 am |
| In Currencies: The dollar once again entered the European morning on shaky ground as fresh 2009 lows were made in Euro and Swiss related pairs. The technical picture seemed conducive for further dollar losses while spot gold continues to hit fresh 18-month highs above $1,024 level. EUR/USD tested 1.4767 while... |
| The Pound May Drop To Parity Against The Euro And The Dollar Tumble Against The Yen September 16, 2009 at 11:06 pm |
| The euro will surge to parity versus the pound and reach its highest level in more than a year against the greenback as investors borrow low-cost funds in the U.K. and U.S. to buy higher-yielding assets, BNP Paribas SA said. The Bank of England and Federal Reserve are flooding their... |
| FX Daily Report September 16, 2009 at 10:18 pm |
| The dollar slumped to a one-year low against a currency basket on Wednesday as risk appetite increased and a report showing sharply higher net capital outflows from the U.S. in July rattled investors. The euro rallied to a nine-month high, a move analysts said was an extension of ongoing negative... |
| In Gold We Trust September 16, 2009 at 10:13 pm |
| The gold rush was on yesterday, with prices surging to $1020/oz as the USD weakened to its lowest levels in over a year, the DXY skimming 76.15. This coupled with higher than expected CPI readings in the Eurozone propelled EURUSD to its highest levels since Dec '08 at 1.4737. Continued... |
| Japan's Central Bank Hold Rates Steady And Improve Its Economic Forecasts September 16, 2009 at 9:40 pm |
| Japan's economy released today some new improved data indicating that the economy is recovering from the worst global financial crisis, determining Japan's central bank to hold rates steady for the ninth consecutive month at 0.1%. |
| Key Technical Level At 1.4719 Under Heavy Pressure September 16, 2009 at 9:37 pm |
| Global investor optimism continues to inspire carry trade-like behavior. This is pushing EUR/USD to challenge the key 1.4719 resistance area. A clear break of this level would reinforce the dollar negative picture. Sterling remains under pressure after BOE King's testimony earlier this week |
| Morning Forex Overview September 16, 2009 at 9:11 pm |
| The dollar rose slightly against the yen in Asia Thursday due to technical buying related to options contracts, but traders said the unit may soon resume falling due to lingering dollar-bearish sentiment. The greenback rose to JPY91.09 in Tokyo from JPY90.78 in New York Wednesday, as non-Japanese investors holding... |
| Equity Markets Shows Continued Signs Of Strength September 16, 2009 at 9:07 pm |
| Industrial Production and Consumer Prices from the US surprised to the upside yesterday, and today we expect more macro data to come out better than expected. Particularly initial jobless claims could surprise to the upside given that last week contained a holiday, Labor Day. |
| Risk Appetite Still On The Menu After Hitting A Few Speed Bumps Yesterday September 16, 2009 at 8:53 pm |
| A session of sharp swings yesterday but the dollar finished the session still with a weaker bias as risk sentiment remained intact. US bond markets took a hit amid reports that a leading think-tank suggested 2 senior Fed officials were turning more hawkish and that markets jumped to the conclusion... |
| Today's Key Points September 16, 2009 at 7:53 pm |
| The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will today announce the outcome of its Q3 monetary policy meeting. It is widely expected that the 3M Libor target will be kept at 0.25% and hence focus will be on the unconventional measures that the SNB introduced in March. |
| Asia Session Recap September 16, 2009 at 7:49 pm |
| Once again in Asia, risk currencies made nice gains at the expense of the US Dollar. With another day of higher stocks in the US and a greater deal of optimism about the global economy, traders continued the recent trend of buying riskier assets including metals and oil. As the... |
| Asian Market Update September 16, 2009 at 7:36 pm |
| In currencies, European majors consolidated their gains made against the greenback in the US session, with EUR and GBP ranging narrowly around 1.4720 and 1.6480. Commodity currencies continue to outperform, as AUD/USD tested multi-month highs above 0.8750, NZD/USD marching toward 0.7150, and USD/CAD falling to 1.0650. Japanese Yen was a... |
| Daily Financial Market Outlook September 16, 2009 at 6:34 pm |
| Yesterday's UK labour market data highlighted a further easing of wage growth, suggesting that broader inflationary pressures are likely to remain benign for some time. In turn, this means official interest rates are likely to remain low and a further expansion of quantitative easing (QE) later this year is a... | |
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